International Data Corporation (IDC) has revised its worldwide smartphone forecast due to a slower market recovery than previously expected.
According to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast, shipments of smartphones will decline 1.1% in 2023 to 1.19 billion units, down from the 2.8% growth in the prior forecast as market continues to suffer from weak demand and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Real market recovery is not expected to occur until 2024, when IDC expects 5.9% year-over-year growth followed by low single-digit growth leading to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%.
The research group predicts that Apple will sell 225 million iPhones in 2023. That’s down 0.5% from 2022. IDC thinks Apple will sell 247.7 million iOS devices in 2027 for a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.8%.
The research group predicts 968 million Android devices will be sold this year. That’s down 1.2% from 2022. IDC thinks 1,123 million Android devices will be sold in 2027 for a five-year compound annual growth rate of 2.8%.
“With increasing costs and ongoing challenges in consumer demand, Original equipment manufacturers are quite cautious about 2023,” says Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Trackers division “While there is finally some good news coming out of China with the recent reopening, there is still a lot of uncertainty and lack of trust, which results in a cautious outlook. However, we remain convinced the global market will return to growth in 2024 once we are past these short-term challenges as there is a significant pent up refresh cycle in developed markets as well as room for smartphone penetration in emerging markets to fuel stable long-term growth.”
IDC says that 5G continues to grow and will account for 62% of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2023, rising to 83% by 2027. Market momentum also continues to build around foldable phones as the segment is expected to grow to nearly 22 million units this year – a 50% increase while the overall market contracts, according to the research group.
