Loup Ventures: 48% of current iPhone owners plan to upgrade in the next year

A new survey of 530 U.S. consumers by Loup Ventures lineup found that 48% of current iPhone owners plan to upgrade in the next year. That compares to 25% when the survey was taken in June of 2017. 

This 48% is an outlier, and therefore should be tempered (intent to buy vs. actual purchase conversion varies cycle to cycle), but the survey is nonetheless a positive indicator of upcoming iPhone demand. Of interest: of the 530 respondents, 212 (40%) were Android users. Of the Android group, 41 (19%) intended to buy an iPhone in the next year. This compares to 12% of Android users planning to make the switch last year.

“The survey’s bottom line: there is greater interest in this upcoming iPhone cycle than we had anticipated,” concludes Loup Ventures. “The bigger picture: iPhone is entering a period of stability (0% to 5% unit growth for the next several years) driven by 805m+ active iPhones with a high (90%) retention rate. Assuming a 3.5-year upgrade cycle and a 90% retention rate implies 207m iPhones sold each year, slightly below the Streets 219m expected in FY18 and FY19.”