American News Group commentary: Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, the weakest third quarter since 2012, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research.
The firm tied the drop to soaring DRAM and NAND memory prices, which have raised component costs and pushed global retail smartphone prices up 20% so far this year. The slump didn’t come out of nowhere.
In February, IDC forecast that global smartphone shipments would fall 12.9% in 2026 to 1.12 billion units, which it called the steepest decline on record, as AI data center buildouts absorbed memory supply and chipmakers prioritized higher-margin data center parts. IDC also projected the average smartphone selling price would climb 14% to a record $523.
“What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain,” said Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC, at the time.
The third quarter confirmed the pressure. Counterpoint reported that Samsung held first place with a 23% share on a 3% shipment decline, while Apple took 22%, its first third-quarter share above 20%.
China-based Xiaomi shipments fell more than 30%, and OPPO and vivo (both also based in China) each fell more than 20%. Counterpoint senior analyst Shilpi Jain said consumers are holding on to their devices longer than estimated. In China, the world’s largest smartphone market, IDC’s preliminary data showed shipments down 15.4% in the quarter.
The result is a split market. Phone makers and the chip suppliers that depend on handset volumes are absorbing the hit, while the memory makers whose prices drove the slowdown are reporting record results.
