TrendForce estimates that shipments of the iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable smartphone, will reach approximately 5 million units in 2026, giving Apple a 24.8% share of the foldable smartphone market and making it the second-largest brand behind Samsung.
The research forecasts global foldable smartphone shipments of approximately 20.2 million units in 2026, up just 0.5% year-over-year (YoY). Excluding Apple, combined shipments from Android brands are expected to reach only around 15.2 million units, down more than 20% YoY.
The decline mainly reflects sharp increases in component costs, with most brands expected to post flat or lower shipments than the previous year. Samsung is projected to ship approximately 7.1 million units for a 35.1% market share, while Huawei is expected to ship around 5 million units for a 24.8% share.
TrendForce notes that the iPhone Duo’s inner display module features a 10-layer stack of ultra-thin materials, combined with a nano-texture surface treatment to reduce reflections and make the crease less visually noticeable. The device also features a Grade 5 titanium frame and hinge cover. It weighs around 254g and measures approximately 5.2 mm thick when unfolded and 11.3 mm when folded.
Apple has omitted a dedicated periscope telephoto camera to minimize thickness and conserve internal space. Instead, the 48 MP main camera provides 2x optical-quality zoom, while a side-mounted Touch ID sensor replaces Face ID. These choices highlight the trade-offs that foldable smartphones continue to face among device thickness, camera capabilities, biometric components, and battery space, says TrendForce.
The iPhone Duo’s design suggests that Apple is not simply pursuing a larger foldable display. Instead, the company is differentiating the device through crease reduction, long-term reliability, consistency between the inner and outer displays, and thinner integration of the display module with the overall device, per TrendForce.
Additionally, iOS 27 expands the foldable experience through enhanced Split View for two-app multitasking, continuity between the inner and outer displays, and interfaces optimized for different folding angles. This extends the value of the foldable form factor beyond hardware into software and multitasking.
TrendForce views 2026 as a year of structural realignment for the foldable smartphone market. For now, incremental demand generated by the iPhone Duo is primarily offsetting declines among existing brands.
From the research group’s report: However, over the medium to long term, Apple’s requirements for displays, UTG, hinges, and overall device architecture could accelerate supply chain technology maturation and the expansion of mass-production scale. Apple’s entry could also prompt Samsung and Chinese brands to reassess their foldable product strategies, accelerating improvements in technical specifications and cost reductions.
In addition to ongoing hardware improvements, AI applications may significantly boost demand for foldable devices. As generative and multimodal AI become more embedded in smartphones, their use cases are broadening from simple apps to real-time translation, content creation, image editing, document summarization, and cross-application collaboration. The expanded display space of an open foldable phone allows users to view AI-generated content, source material, and multiple apps simultaneously, enriching multitasking and human-machine interaction.
For Apple, the iPhone Duo integrates Apple Intelligence and Siri AI to support natural-language interactions, personalized contextual understanding, and in-app actions. Deeper integration of AI and multitasking interfaces with the larger foldable display could transform the device from a hardware differentiator into a new interface for AI applications, says TrendForce.
The research group says this suggests that the next stage of foldable smartphone competition will extend beyond making devices thinner, lighter, and less prone to visible creasing. Creating AI experiences that are fundamentally different from those available on conventional slab smartphones will also be critical to further expanding the market.
I hope you’ll help support Apple World Today by becoming a patron. Almost all our income is from Patreon support and sponsored posts. Patreon pricing ranges from $2 to $10 a month. Thanks in advance for your support.
