IDC analysts have shared reactions to Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” event.
Here’s what they have to say:
Nabila Popal (Senior Director) on the iPhone Duo:
“Apple appears to have hit it out of the park with the iPhone Duo. While a passport-size form factor is not new, the execution here looks quite good. The user experience is intuitive and fluid, with a seamless transition from closed to open. The ease of use, coupled with an elegant design, should make the Duo stand out among the crowd of foldable devices today. This could be a blockbuster product for Apple, and a great way for new CEO John Ternus to kick off his tenure.”
Tom Mainelli (Group Vice President) on pricing:
“In an era where even Apple struggles to keep secrets, the biggest surprises today were around pricing. After earlier raising prices across much of its lineup due to RAM costs, today it launched its first foldable starting at $1,999 (versus an expected $2,499), raised the new starting price of the 18 Pro and Pro Max by just $100, held the line on Apple Watches (still starting at $399 and $799), and brought the AirPods 5 in below their predecessor (starting at $129). Impressive!”
Francisco Jeronimo (Vice President) on Apple’ strategy:
“iPhone Duo is more than an additional form factor. It can lift iPhone mix, reinforce Apple’s leadership in the premium segment and create a new platform for developers and services. It can also demonstrate that Apple still has the capacity to define, not merely follow, important hardware transitions. Apple’s entry can change the category’s economics. IDC forecasts Apple will account for 81% of net foldable value added and 71% of net unit growth between 2026 and 2030.”
Nabila Popal (Senior Director) on the iPhone 18 base:
“This was the first fall event without a base-model launch, which has typically driven 16% of Apple’s H2 global shipments. The decision is less about supply constraints than portfolio strategy. With a six-model lineup, splitting launches across fall and spring maximizes attention per tier, reduces event clutter, and spreads revenue more evenly through the year. Fall now focuses on premium, higher-margin models, while spring highlights affordable options such as the base model, e, and Air, extending demand cycles and visibility.”
Tom Mainelli (Group Vice President) on AI:
“It will likely go unnoticed amid the product announcements, but Apple also said today that Siri AI will stay in beta even after the new OS versions featuring it ship later this quarter. That caution, at a time when companies such as Meta are diving headlong into consumer agents, may prove savvy. The tech world is obsessed with agentic AI, but consumers are increasingly skeptical. Apple slow rolling Siri AI may prove to be the right call long term.”
Francisco Jeronimo (Vice President) on the iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max:
“The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max reinforce Apple’s flagship portfolio through performance, imaging and AI. Apple positions the A20 Pro as enabling on-device Apple Intelligence workloads, with Private Cloud Compute supporting more advanced processing. These products matter strategically because they protect Apple’s premium core as iPhone Duo enters above it. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 for 256GB, creating a clear premium anchor, while the iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 for 256GB, creating a new super-premium tier.”
Nabila Popal (Senior Director) on iPhone colors:
“We saw the power of a hit color on sales last year with 17’s Cosmic Orange. With the stunning new Burgundy, Apple has done it again. This is by far my all-time favorite color from Apple, and IMO this might be an even bigger driver than the “Hermes” orange. I am super curious to see what nickname this fetches from Chinese consumers.”
Tom Mainelli (Group Vice President) on the Apple Watch:
“The new Series 12 and Ultra 4 Watches showcase Apple’s ability to bring together new silicon, sensors, and software. Fitness features such as Readiness (recovery) and Health Age (versus your real age) bring Apple’s precision to metrics available from competitors such as Whoop. And Audio Intelligence, designed to help you hear what you missed (Live Rewind), capture sounds (Sound Recognition) or capture notes (Siri Recap), finds Apple attempting to walk a fine line between always-listening ambient AI computing and its desire to repect user’s privacy.”
Nabila Popal (Senior Director) on trade-Ins:
“While price hikes weren’t as high as expected, they still rose $100 across all existing and new models. Not to mention the nearly $2,000 iPhone Duo, which crosses $3,000 in higher storage tiers. Apple was smart to work with US carriers on the highest trade-ins ever, $1,200, for devices as old as the 14 series. I’ve said it before: aggressive trade-ins in the US and globally will happen more and more, helping fuel this premiumization wave in Apple’s favor.”
Francisco Jeronimo (Vice President) on software:
“The software proposition on the iPhone Duo is just as important. The device supports side-by-side applications, paired applications for repeated workflows, content movement between apps, use in different partially folded orientations and a redesigned standby experience. These elements are designed to make the larger internal display relevant to real tasks – communications, productivity, content consumption and creative work – rather than simply making the device a larger phone.”
Phil Solis (Research Director) on semiconductors:
“Apple explained how it can handle on-device AI workloads better than before. Apple’s A20 Pro (TSMC 2nm) with a dual 16-core NPU (32 NPU cores total) is able to better manage multiple AI models simultaneously or get a boost for one. It also has 50% more bandwidth for memory with a 96-bit memory bus to move data faster. Finally, the side-by-side (not stacked) processor and memory allow for much better heat dissipation – an increasing problem with smaller and more powerful processors.”
IDC’s latest smartphone and foldable forecast is also worth a read.
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