Market research firm Sigmaintell projects Apple will ship about 28 million MacBooks in 2026, up from roughly 23 million units in 2025.
That would push the company past Dell into third place by unit volume, behind Lenovo and HP, with estimated unit volumes of 43 million and 39 million, respectively, notes TechSpot.
Total global notebook shipments are forecast to fall to 181.1 million units in 2026, an 8% year-over-year decline. Rising DRAM prices are a central factor, constraining supply and dampening demand across most manufacturers. In that context, Apple is the only major manufacturer expected to grow shipments.
Apple has rounded out its MacBook lineup this year with the launch of the entry-level MacBook Neo. The previous MacBook lineup consisted of the Pro and Air, both priced above the Neo.
Sigmaintell also highlighted Apple’s Unified Memory Architecture (UMA). UMA is a design unique to Apple Silicon in which the CPU and GPU share memory resources. According to Sigmaintell, Apple has standardized memory specifications across multiple product lines, improving flexibility in component sourcing.
Apple’s revenue model is another differentiating factor, according to Sigmaintell. Apple generates substantial services revenue from the App Store, iCloud, and similar offerings, meaning it does not need to fully pass through memory price increases into finished-product pricing. Apple uses hardware like the MacBook as an “entry point” into its ecosystem, with services revenue offsetting hardware-side cost pressure.
Sigmaintell noted that Apple’s revenue model differentiates it from x86-camp Windows notebook vendors that rely on Intel and AMD CPUs. The x86 camp is heavily dependent on hardware sales. While Apple’s notebook shipment forecast trails Lenovo and others, per-unit profit and overall margins are expected to exceed those of peers.
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