Global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to slip 1% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown, following a 4% rise in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest global smartphone manufacturing allocation tracker.
China, India, and Vietnam were responsible for more than 90% of the global manufacturing output in 2024, with India leading in terms of growth. However, in 2025, manufacturing outputs from different countries are expected to show mixed performances. China is expected to feel the impact of tariffs in 2025, which will result in declining output coupled with forecast domestic underperformance. Commenting on the trend, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Ivan Lam, said, “The global smartphone manufacturing shift has been accelerating after the COVID-19 pandemic, but the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers. Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries. The main winners are India, which has significant growth potential, and Vietnam, which is relatively closer to China and has a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics.”
India is set to be the big winner in 2025. The country is expected to record double-digit percentage growth during the year to captured a 20% share of the global output, fuelled by export demand from Apple and Samsung. Vietnam, as a global manufacturing export hub, will also see strong growth driven by Samsung and Motorola.
