The iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, and AirPods Pro 3 are predicted to be among the top selling products over the holiday season.
Adobe has released its online shopping forecast for the 2026 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026. The iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, and AirPods Pro 3 are predicted to be among the top sellers.
The Adobe forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. It says spending on the 2026 holidays is set to cross $275 billion milestone, with pre-season spending uptick in October
Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026), growing 6.7% year-over-year (YoY). Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) is set to drive $47.5 billion online (up 7.4% YoY), representing 17.3% of the full holiday season spend.
Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) is expected to set a new milestone for U.S. e-commerce, with consumers spending over $15 billion online in a single day ($15.1 billion, up 6.2% YoY). The second biggest day of the season will be Black Friday ($12.9 billion, up 9.2% YoY), which is growing faster than Cyber Monday—driven in part by having the biggest discounts for categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances.
Thanksgiving is set to drive $6.9 billion (up 8.5% YoY), bolstered by impulse shopping: A record 63% of online spend is set to come through mobile devices (up from 61.6% in 2025), outpacing the full season where mobile will account for 57.4% of overall spend (up from 56.4% in 2025).
Of the full holiday season spend, electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9% YoY) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7% YoY) remain tentpole categories in e-commerce, but consumers are also embracing other categories online with stronger growth observed in furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3% YoY), grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3% YoY), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6% YoY) and cosmetics ($9.2 billion, 9.5% YoY).
Across categories, deals will be on par with the 2025 season: Discounts in electronics for example, are expected to peak at 30% off listed price (vs. 30.1% in 2025), while discounts for toys are set to hit 29% (vs. 28%). Notable discounts are also expected in TVs at 23% (vs. 24.2%), computers at 23% (vs. 22.8%), apparel at 23% (vs. 23.2%), sporting goods at 19% (vs. 19.5%), appliances at 18% (vs. 19.2%) and furniture at 18% (vs. 19%). Shoppers will find the deepest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday, but the best deals for TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture is expected to land on Black Friday. Thanksgiving will have the best deals for sporting goods.
In addition to the aforementioned Apple products, other hot sellers over the holiday season are expected to be:
- Top gaming consoles this season are expected to include Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5/Pro and Xbox Series X, along with games such as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, EA SPORTS FC 27, Grand Theft Auto VI, Madden NFL 27, Marvel’s Wolverine, Minecraft Dungeons II, NBA 2K27 and Pokémon Pokopia.
- Top selling toys are expected to include Beyblade X, Jellycat plush toys, KPop Demon Hunters toys, LEGO Pokémon and SMART Play, NeeDoh Toys, Pokémon Pikachu Puppetronic, Sesame Street Tickle Me Elmo Giggle Max and Toy Story 5 toys.
- Other expected hot sellers include the Dyson Airwrap , Google Pixel 11 , KODAK Charmera , Meta AI Glasses, Oura Ring 5 , Samsung Galaxy S26/Z Fold8 and WHOOP 5.0.
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