GenAI-capable smartphones are forecast to account for 45% of global shipments in 2026, up from 36% in 2025, according to the latest Counterpoint Research GenAI Smartphone Forecast. However, the ongoing memory supply crisis is expected to reduce total global smartphone shipments by 13.9% year-over-year to 1.08 billion units in 2026, the lowest level on record, notes the research group.
Counterpoint says Apple and Samsung continue to lead the GenAI-capable smartphone segment, supported by their scale and strong premium portfolios. With the launch of the iPhone 17 series, GenAI capabilities are now available across nearly the entire Apple smartphone lineup. Meanwhile, Samsung has taken an early lead in deploying agentic AI features, expanding advanced AI experiences across its flagship devices.
“GenAI capability has become standard in high-end smartphones priced above $400 wholesale, but it has yet to give consumers a compelling reason to upgrade,” Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak says. “ A clear gap remains between devices that are GenAI capable and those on which users regularly engage with AI features. Bridging this gap will require practical, everyday use cases that deliver consistent value.”
He adds that all major manufacturers are racing to embed GenAI features as core differentiators, shifting from cloud-dependent capabilities to on-device AI. Samsung and Google lead with generative photo editing, live translation and other features, while Apple recently announced it has redesigned Siri AI from the ground up.”
“Apple’s redesigned Siri looks promising. Early beta reviews have been positive, suggesting a significant improvement in leveraging personal context and managing daily tasks. Its deep integration across Apple’s ecosystem and strong focus on privacy provide a distinct competitive advantage,” Pathak says. “If iOS 27 delivers the fully conversational Siri that Apple has promised, it could help support another iPhone upgrade cycle.”
Counterpoint says that GenAI’s share is expected to accelerate further, with GenAI-capable devices projected to account for 52% of global smartphone shipments in 2027, putting GenAI technology on track to become a standard feature across the market.”
Senior Analyst Karn Chauhan says the primary shift is now in the AI models powering smartphones, rather than the devices themselves. At the premium end, Google Gemini is central to this layer, supporting Apple’s rebuilt Siri, anchoring Samsung’s Galaxy AI, and powering overseas devices from major Chinese manufacturers. However, this influence is not universal.
According to Counterpoint, Chinese brands continue to use their own models domestically, while Apple and Samsung retain proprietary on-device AI capabilities. The shared foundation largely ends at the model layer.
These changes are occurring alongside a significant increase in memory costs, which is shaping the market more than any feature trend, notes Counterpoint.
From the report: The entry-level segment faces the most pressure, as higher component costs are eliminating lower-priced devices. In contrast, premium GenAI models can better absorb these increases, strengthening their market position. For the first time in years, consumers will likely pay more while receiving fewer hardware upgrades. Although manufacturerss are reducing base memory, cameras, and SKUs [stock keeping units], much of the cost increase will still be passed on to retail prices. As a result, Counterpoint Research expects the budget segment to shrink, the premium segment to grow, and the refurbished market to expand as buyers keep devices longer.
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