Things could be looking up for Mac sales this year and in 2024

Mac sales were down year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023, but the outlook looks brighter for the foreseeable future.

Global personal computer (PC) shipments declined 9% year-over-year (YoY) in quarter three (Q3) of 2023 as the market continued to be weighed down by weak demand amid a slowdown in consumer and enterprise purchases. However, global shipments grew sequentially for the second straight quarter in Q3 2023 helped by moderate seasonality, according to new data from Counterpoint Research.

“We reiterate that the PC market has already bottomed out and are expecting gentle shipment recovery along with several new product launches over the next couple of months, especially from AI function-enabled models,” the research group says.

Vendors are eyeing a shipment comeback next year

According to Counterpoint, Lenovo’s shipments saw a single digit percentage YoY decline in Q3 2023, outperforming most computer makers except HP, whose Q3 2023 shipments registered mid-single digit YoY growth in percentage terms as the company benefitted from robust consumer and educational demand. However, other top PC vendors such as Dell, Apple and Asus still struggled to find strong shipment drivers to boost shipments across the board. 

“Fortunately, we are now entering the first replacement cycle after the COVID-19 pandemic along with a potential pick-up in AI PC momentum as we move into 2024,” says Counterpoint.

AI PC to drive another wave of shipment growth in 2024

Over the past five quarters, PC manufacturers have been working hard to resolve inventory issues and have had a difficult time searching for a new growth engine for their PC businesses. In this context, the artificial intelligence (AI) PC may have emerged as the next big thing and will very likely drive the next wave of shipment rebound in 2024.

“We expect AI PCs to have a 50% 10-year CAGR from 2020 and dominate the PC market after 2026 with an expected penetration rate of more than 50%,” says Counterpoint. “Intel, Qualcomm and other PC CPU makers are working closely with PC manufacturers toward next-generation mainstream models and we expect to see a lot of new product launches after Q4 2023, marking a new chapter for the PC industry.”