Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to see 7.3% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
The improved forecast for the holiday quarter follows the modest improvement in 3Q23 without further inventory buildup, which has led some channels and major manufacturers to ramp up their business plans for the months ahead. IDC says the market recovery will continue in 2024 with 3.8% growth expected, followed by low single-digit growth for the rest of the forecast period, resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.4%.
Despite improved expectations for 4Q23, worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 3.5% year over year in 2023 to 1.16 billion units, says IDC. Still the revised forecast for 2023 is an improvement over the decline of 4.7% forecast earlier in the year, adds the research group.
Smartphone average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise 5.5% in 2023 to $438, marking a fourth consecutive year of growth as the premium market continues to grow across all regions. However, ASP growth is expected to taper off and gradually decline to $396 by 2027, which remains higher than prior forecasts.
From an operating systems perspective, IDC says iOS remains more resilient to macro challenges with 0.6% growth, achieving a record share of 19.6% this year, while Android is forecast to decline 4.4%. However, the research group says that over the long term, Android will grow slightly faster than iOS, increasing its share of the market to 81.3% by the end of the forecast period.
