As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says in a Medium post.
“If Apple doesn’t officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it’s almost confirmed that we won’t see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024,” he writes. “I think Apple hasn’t officially kicked off Apple Watch Ultra 3 project because it needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production.”
Gurman says that without a new Apple Watch Ultra model in 2024, the shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20–30% year-over-year in 2024, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by 10% year-over-year in 2024 to about 35 million units.
The Sellers Research Group (that’s me) thinks Kuo is wrong and that we will see an Apple Watch Ultra 3 next year. After all, the analyst and others said the biggie-sized smartwatch wouldn’t be updated this year. But it was.
As I’ve said before, I think 2024 will be a big year for the smartwatch and that sales will rebound. The 2024 Apple Watch probably won’t have “significant innovative experiences,” though Apple may promote it as an accessory for the upcoming Vision Pro, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in an October 10 Medium post. However, I disagree.
I think Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman is more correct in saying that, in an August edition of his Power On newsletter, that 2024 or 2025 will see Apple launch the “Apple Watch X,” the biggest redesign of its smartwatch ever. I think it will arrive next year.
The launch of the smartwatch will come in time for the 10th anniversary of the Apple Watch. Gurman says Apple is trying to make the Watch X thinner than previous model. He adds that it could also include a new magnetic attachment system for attaching and swapping bands.
I also think we’ll see an even bigger Apple Watch Ultra ion 2024. The current Ultra has a 1.93-inch display, while the 2024 version will be 10% larger with a 50mm case size, according to according to DigiTimes It’s also expected to be the first Apple Watch to adopt micro-LED display tech. DigiTimes is hit-or-miss when it comes to Apple product predictions, but I think they’re spot on with this rumor.
In February display analyst Jeff Pu claimed Apple will update the 2024 Apple Watch Ultra with a 2.1-inch micro-LED display. The new display tech will allow for a higher brightness output than the current Apple Watch and its OLED screen.
