Despite some gloom-and-doom forecasts, the Sellers Research Group (that’s me) thinks the Apple Vision Pro will be a hit.
Not a raise-the-bar-for-Apple-revenues kind of hit (at least not yet), but a hit in the sense that Apple will sell out of every unit it can make (probably less than half-a-million at most this year) and lay the groundwork for future (and less expensive) versions of the “spatial computer.”
In a January 14 article, Macworld’s Jason Cross asked, “Will Apple Vision Pro be a bigger flop than HomePod?” Here are some tidbits from the article:
In the short term (throughout 2024), Apple Vision Pro could be successful if it holds the public’s attention and imagination. Are people still interested in October? Are developers still putting lots of resources into developing for the platform? Are all the major corporations from which we saw demos last year, like Disney and the NBA, still genuinely enthusiastic about it? Is Apple Vision Pro still all over social media or have all the influencers moved on to the next big thing?
The difficult feat that Apple has to pull off is to maintain excitement–from the public, developers, and businesses–long enough for the company to launch a lower-cost, higher-volume product. An Apple Vision Air, if you will.
Ultimately, the success of Apple Vision Pro will really be measured by the demand for the next Apple Vision product.
I think Jason is right. And I think the follow-up to the first generation Vision Pro will be a big hit (assuming it comes with a US$2,000 or under price tag).
In writing for 9to5Mac, Ben Lovejoy says early availability of the Vision Pro won’t mean much either way.
“Whatever happens, we can expect breathless headlines about Vision Pro being either a runaway success or a flop, depending on how quickly or slowly delivery dates slip … ,” he writes. “…. The difference between Vision Pro today and whatever mixed-reality products Apple is selling 16 years from now is completely unimaginable. So too are the likely sales numbers a decade or two from now.”
I’ll be one of those trying to get my hands on a Vision Pro as soon as it becomes available for review purposes (and, no, Apple won’t provide me a review model even if I’m willing to pay for it). I’ll keep you informed on how the buying process.
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