According to a new International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast, shipments of smartphones will decline 3.5% to 1.31 billion units in 2022. However, the research group However, says that Apple appears to be the least impacted vendor due to greater control over its supply chain and because the majority of its customers in the high-priced segment are less influenced by macroeconomic issues like inflation.
After three consecutive quarters of decline and increasing challenges in both supply and demand, IDC has significantly reduced its forecast for 2022 from the previous projection of 1.6% growth. However, the research group expects this to be a short term set back as the market rebounds to achieve a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% through 2026.
“The smartphone industry is facing increasing headwinds from many fronts – weakening demand, inflation, continued geo-political tensions, and ongoing supply chain constraints. However, the impact of the China lockdowns – which have no clear end in sight – are far greater,” says Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. “The lockdowns hit global demand and supply simultaneously by reducing demand in the largest market globally and tightening the bottleneck to an already challenged supply chain. As a result, many manufacturers cut back orders for this year, including Apple and Samsung.”
From a regional view, the largest decline in 2022 is expected in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with shipments down 22%, according to IDC. China is forecast to decline 11.5% or roughly 38 million units, which is about 80% of the global reduction in shipment volume this year. Western Europe is expected to decline 1% while most other regions will see positive growth this year, including Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) (APeJC) with 3% growth, the second largest region after China.
IDC says that 5G devices are expected to grow 25.5% year over year in 2022 and account for 53% of new shipments with nearly 700 million devices and an average selling price (ASP) of $608.
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