In a blog post, venture capitalist Gene Munster says iPhone growth will peak in fiscal year 2019, then slowly decline as “Apple Glasses” emerge. He thinks those glasses, an AR-focused wearable, will be released mid-fiscal year 2020.
“We believe Apple see’s the AR future as a combination of the iPhone and some form of a wearable,” Munster writes. “With an average sale price of $1,300 we expect initial demand to be limited at just over 3m units compared to 242m iPhones that year.
He also forecasts that Apple’s AirPods will be “bigger than the Apple Watch” over the next decade as the product evolves from simple wireless headphones to a wearable, augmented audio device.
“While both AirPods and Apple Watch should continue to grow, we see AirPods contributing about the same amount of revenue as Apple Watch by FY22. We expect the AirPods ASP to increase from $159 today to $200 in FY22 as the product shifts to augmented audio,” Munster writes.