In a new Medium post, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says U.S. shipments of the Apple Vision Pro are expected to be 200,000–250,000 units this year, better than Apple’s original estimate of 150,000–200,000 units. He also expects the spatial computer to debut in more countries before summer’s Apple Worldwide Developer Conference. Currently, it’s only available in the U.S.
Kuo says Vision Pro shipping time has now improved to 3–5 days. Despite this, he analyst says unless Apple cuts the price of Vision Pro or there are more attractive applications, the shipment growth in the U.S. market may be limited. Other key points from his Medium post:
- According to my survey of the repair/refurbishment production line, the current return rate for Vision Pro is less than 1%, with no anomalies.
- It is worth noting that 20–30% of the returns are due to users not knowing how to set up Vision Pro.
- The market generally expects Apple to release a lower-priced version with downgraded specs (e.g., reduced number of cameras, removal of EyeSight, etc.) and a new model with upgraded specs. However, my latest survey indicates that Apple has not officially started either project.
- Apple’s new Vision Pro project is expected to go into mass production in 4Q25–1Q26, with Hon Hai receiving the new product introduction (NPI). The new project focuses on improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specs. The new project may reduce costs, and the latest plan shows limited changes to product specs, so it is estimated that the user experience will not differ from the current model.
- Apple is already collecting user feedback for the Vision Pro product roadmap. It is currently estimated that new models with significant changes to the Vision Pro specification may not be in mass production until 2027.
About the Vision Pro
Demos of the Apple Vision Pro at Apple Stores in the U.S. can be reserved on Apple.com. To reserve a free Vision Pro demo online, go here, then follow the steps to book an appointment at your local Apple Store.
Pricing for the Vision Pro starts at US$3,499 with 256GB of storage. ZEISS Optical Inserts are available: $99 for reading lens and $149 for prescription lens.
