Apple could lose 20 million-plus iPhone shipments in 2024 due to China bans

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that China has ordered officials at central government agencies not to use Apple’s iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work or bring them into the office. Today Bloomberg reports that the country plans to expand the ban on the use of iPhones in sensitive departments to government-backed agencies and state companies.

The effect, according to Bank of American analysts, could mean the loss of more than 20 million iPhone shipments in 2024. China is crucial for Apple, and the company relies on this market for approximately 19% of its overall revenue.

“China accounts for roughly 40-50 million iPhone units for Apple. We estimate up to a 5 million to 10 million-unit headwind if such a ban were to go through and subsequently be enforced,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a client note seen by investing.com. “Additionally, if iPhones are banned from being carried into official workplaces (the Journal article suggests this as well), the impact could be higher given the high propensity of Chinese consumers to own and carry multiple phones. We estimate that every 1 million iPhones translates to about a penny in EPS. The prior foreign branded laptop ban announced in 2022 allowed for a 2-year time frame to comply. It remains unclear what the timing of this potential ban would be.”