Canalys forecasts that global personal computer (PC) and tablet shipments will fall 7% from 395.6 million units in 2019 to 367.8 million units in 2020. The research group expects the global PC market will stay flat in 2021 and return to growth of 2% in 2022.
Though the PC market has been rattled by the impact of COVID-19, the worst is behind us as quarter two (Q2), Q3 and Q4 are all expected to post smaller year-on-year shipment declines than Q1, according to Canalys. This is mainly due to a return to a healthy supply chain and manufacturing base in China, which will serve pent-up demand in segments such as remote working and education. Nevertheless, the recessionary impact of the coronavirus on global economies will not be minor, and consumers, businesses and governments will prioritize vital spending ahead of PC refresh when times get tough, adds the research group.
“From a category perspective, notebooks have been at the center of a demand surge that has left vendors and channel partners scrambling,” says Ishan Dutt, analyst at Canalys. “We expect this demand to persist as many businesses that have been forced into home working and found it successful are now choosing to implement it on a larger scale. The same holds true for education, where schools have made investments in digital curricula and are implementing only partial returns to on-premises learning. Desktop refresh will suffer to a greater degree as businesses face prolonged uncertainty about the scope of their operations and dedicated office space needs. Tablets, which have the greatest reliance on consumer spending, will face a slump as holiday season demand in Q4 is expected to take a hit this year.”
Looking further ahead, there are some reasons for vendors, channel partners and component suppliers to be optimistic, as the importance of PCs has come to the fore during the pandemic.
“COVID-19 has given the PC industry a boost. Despite the progress that smartphones and tablets have made in recent years, the need for a high-performance mobile computing device has never been more pronounced. As countries emerge from this crisis and the ensuing economic slump, spending on technology solutions will be a key recovery driver,” says Rushabh Doshi, Canalys Research Director. “Canalys expects the global PC market to return to growth of 2% in 2022, with desktop and notebook shipments overcoming prolonged weakness in the tablet space. But it is important to keep things in perspective: a modest recovery from a weak 2020 will not see the PC market return to the highs of 2019 for some years to come.”
Canalys forecasts total PC and tablet shipments in North America will drop 6% year on year in 2020. The U.S., as the world’s largest PC market, was affected by supply shortages in Q1 2020. But Canalys expects a strong surge in demand in Q2, driven by large enterprises looking to enable their employees to work from home.
