As noted by Parrot Analytics, a mix of legacy and tech Hollywood players report earnings on Thursday as Wall Street considers who can compete with Netflix long term, and which success metrics will move the needle going forward.
Comcast’s NBCUniversal has dropped below Netflix in a key audience demand metric, and Parrot Analytics will reveal historic ARPU [average revenue per unit] and churn data on Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ for the first time, in lieu of those parent companies breaking out SVOD results.
In quarter three (Q3) 2024, Netflix jumped ahead of NBCUniversal in corporate demand share — that is, demand for all original TV content produced under a company’s corporate umbrella. This is the first time that Netflix has led a legacy studio in the category. While this is a telling sign of where things are headed, NBCUniversal is in overall solid shape compared to its legacy media brethren — the debt saddled Warner Bros. Discovery and ownership-transitioning Paramount Global.
Peacock Post-Playoff Game Churn
Peacock generated positive headlines in Q3 for its handling of the 2024 Paris Olympics — which will likely lead to strong subscriber growth for the quarter. The real question is how will the platform retain those new sign ups? Early evidence suggests one-off sporting events may not drive long term subscriber retention.
Parrot Analytics Streaming Metrics shows that Q2 2024 marked the sharpest quarterly increase in Peacock’s churn rate in more than three years. This occurred in the quarter following Peacock’s highly touted exclusive NFL Playoff Game in January, which drove record sign ups (at the time). Watch for post-Olympics Q4 churn as a sign of long term health for Peacock.
One of NBCUniversal’s key moves from the pre-Streaming Wars era is paying off — licensing Paramount Network’s Yellowstone to Peacock. The hit cable series has accounted for nearly 4% of Peacock’s subscriber acquisition in 2024, second among all titles only to the Oscar-winning film Oppenheimer for the platform.
Tech Giants
While Amazon and Apple do not break out metrics from their video streaming divisions, Parrot Analytics Streaming Metrics can provide insight into the black boxes of the performances for both streaming services.
Apple TV+ has carved out an increasing share of Apple’s total global services revenue, more than doubling its share from the launch in Q4 2019 to Q2 2024 (Apple’s Q3 2024). In the quarter ending in June, Apple’s services generated a record $24.2 billion in revenue.
Both Apple TV+ and Amazon Prime Video have seen significant ARPU gains in the last year, led by pricing changes and hit seasons of flagship shows like Ted Lasso and The Boys. Both tactics — a price hike and introducing ads — increased ARPU and revenue for these platforms but reduced subscribers in the short term.
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