Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 14.3% year-over-year (YoY) in 2026, with the downturn extending into 2027 as component costs and affordability pressures intensify, according to new data from Counterpoint Research.
Samsung is set to retake the global No. 1 position, helped by its supply chain strength, broad portfolio and willingness to defend volume. However, Counterpoint says Apple will outperform the market, but higher pricing and a staggered launch cadence will constrain its shipment outlook.
Here’s what Counterpoint has to say about the iPhone maker: Apple continues to benefit from its premium positioning, customer loyalty, financing options and preferential access to critical components. These advantages were on display through the strong demand for the iPhone 17 series. However, possible higher launch pricing of the iPhone 18 series, and changes to the timing of Pro and base-model introductions across the 2026 and 2027 product cycles could affect quarterly demand and channel inventory.
Apple is expected to launch its first foldable smartphone in Q3 2026. We forecast high-single-digit million unit shipments for the device, and therefore unlikely to change Apple’s overall shipment trajectory. Nevertheless, it establishes an important foundation for future Apple device portfolio expansion in the coming years.
Leading Chinese manufacturers face shipment declines between 15% to 34% in 2026, reflecting their greater exposure to lower priced devices and emerging markets, notes Counterpoint.The market is forecast to rebound in 2028 and move back to 2024-2025 levels by the end of the decade as anticipated 6G commercialization broadens, predicts the research group.
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