Apple’s decision to drastically raise prices across the entire Mac lineup has reshaped market expectations, according to TrendForce’s latest notebook market research. The research group forecasts Apple will ship approximately 23.1 million notebooks in 2026 as MacBook price increases begin to reach end markets in the third quarter and consumer demand softens. First-half shipments exceeded expectations, supported by stable pricing and the strong launch of the MacBook Neo.
Although momentum is expected to moderate in the second half, full-year shipments are still projected to achieve double-digit year-over-year growth. TrendForce notes that higher MacBook prices may narrow the price overlap between MacBooks and certain premium Windows notebooks, encouraging some price-sensitive consumers to switch to Windows devices.
From the TrendForce report: Nevertheless, with notebook prices rising across the board and overall consumer demand weakening, this spillover effect is expected to be limited and is unlikely to become a meaningful driver of broader market recovery.
Compared to the overall notebook market, Apple’s performance is projected to stay relatively stable throughout the year. The ongoing adoption of Apple Silicon is encouraging existing users to upgrade, and the robust macOS ecosystem—along with Apple’s seamless cross-device integration—helps maintain underlying demand. However, if retail prices increase more than anticipated and significantly reduce consumer demand, Apple’s shipment forecast might need further downward adjustment.
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