The TrendForce research thinks the foldable iPhone could capture 20% market share. However, the Counterpoint Research group predicts it will nab 46% market share.
North America’s foldable smartphone market is set to undergo its most significant structural shift to date in 2026, driven by Apple’s entry into the segment, according to Counterpoint Research’s Foldable Smartphone Market Forecast. With the market expected to grow 48% year-over-year (YoY) in 2026, Apple is projected to capture a 46% share in its first year, “reshaping demand dynamics and redistributing share across existing vendors,” per Counterpoint. This shift is expected to place pressure on vendors that recently gained traction in the region, particularly Google and Motorola.
The research group says that Google may face notable downward pressure, driven by the structural reallocation of market shares following Apple’s entry. In addition, given that its single-foldable lineup is closely aligned with Apple’s expected device in both form factor and price positioning, part of its existing demand base may shift toward Apple’s ecosystem. As a result, its share is projected to decline from 5% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 despite a product refresh.
Motorola, which reached a 44% share in the North American foldable market in 2025 on strong momentum, is set for a decline to 23% in 2026, as Apple’s entry reshapes the competitive landscape. While the brand is preparing to expand into the book-type segment with its Razr Fold, it could face meaningful downside pressure on the device’s volume expansion, particularly if no clear pricing or specification advantage emerges.
Samsung is also projected to see a significant decline in North America, with its share falling from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026, as Apple’s entry further shifts market dynamics and heightens competition in the book-type segment. While the company is set to expand its foldable lineup with a wide-type Galaxy Z Fold variant designed to compete more directly with Apple, achieving meaningful differentiation in Apple’s home market may remain challenging, according to Counterpoint.
Apple’s entry is expected to drive foldable smartphone market expansion by unlocking upgrade demand within its existing iPhone user base, particularly in the ultra-premium segment. At the same time, part of this demand is projected to include replacement demand from existing Android foldable users, suggesting that Apple’s volumes may not be fully incremental to the market in the early stage of 2026.
“Google and Motorola have been key growth drivers in North America, but Apple’s foldable iPhone is set to significantly alter that trajectory,” said Associate Director Liz Lee. “While current expectations for a stable launch timeline and production ramp remain intact, concerns around potential initial supply constraints are beginning to emerge. However, it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, and the extent and scale of any such limitations will likely become clearer as mass production ramps up going forward.”
The foldable iPhone — rumored to be dubbed either the “iPhone Fold” or “iPhone Ultra” — is due in the September-October time frame. You can find a round-up of rumors about it here.
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