Counterpoint Research reports that global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 12% year-over-year (YoY) in 2026, dropping just below 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual volume since 2013. Here are highlights from the report:
° A severe, supply‑driven memory crunch will be the primary trigger of the downturn, which is expected to extend well into 2027, disrupting manufacturer ortfolios and delaying launches across the industry.
° Premium segments will remain comparatively resilient, while lower segments will face the sharpest margin and affordability pressures due to shrinking LPDDR4 supply and rising component costs. As a result, manufacturers focused on lower segments and emerging markets will take the biggest hit.
° Industry consolidation is now a baseline scenario, as smaller vendors struggle with rising BOM costs, shrinking addressable markets, and limited ability to absorb price shocks.
° Recovery is unlikely before late 2027, with meaningful improvement dependent on new memory supply coming online. Underlying market fundamentals and replacement cycles will remain structurally altered through the end of the decade.
Counterpoint expounds that the premium segments are expected to remain more resilient than the mass market and likely to grow in single digits, while the sub-$200 price segment is expected to decline by more than 20%. Apple and Samsung are likely to weather the headwinds better due to stronger supply chain integration, higher pricing power, and continued premiumization.
Counterpoint says that while flagship memory supply remains tight, premium device availability is expected to stay relatively stable compared with entry-level and lower-mid products. In addition, higher-income consumers and carrier-led promotions should help cushion the impact of rising device prices in premium segments. Within emerging markets, we expect the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Latin America and Asia Pacific regions to decline by 19%, 14% and 14%, respectively.
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