New analysis from Omdia has revealed that global music publisher revenue will top the $10 billion mark for the first time this year.
Moreover, revenue is set to rise annually for the next five years. Total income is projected to exceed US$13 billion for the first time in 2029 and then reach the $14 billion milestone the following year, according to the research group.
In line with the streaming gains boosting recorded-music sales, publishing is also benefiting from the continued improvement of all things access-related. Streaming is already the biggest source of income for music publishers and the share of revenue generated by services such as Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music will widen over the forecast period.
Omdia estimates that global publishing revenue will register a 5.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the five years to 2030, ending the forecast period at $14.04 billion. The digital CAGR is forecast at 6.7% with total digital receipts expected to top the $8 billion mark in 2029 and rise to $8.67 billion the following year.
Given that the music publishing and recorded-music sectors are inextricably linked, their fortunes over the next five years are closely connected, notes Omedia. However, the growth rate for publishing revenue at the end of the forecast period will be higher than that of recorded-music.
According to Omdia, publishing revenue in 2030 will register growth of 3.7%. This compares with a rise of 2.3% for recorded-music. For the two revenue sources combined, publishing will account for 21% of the total in 2030, up from 20.8% in the prior year, and 18.9% in 2024.
“Music publishing is on a high at the moment and has been for the last few years,” said Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. “The inevitable slowdown in the growth of music streaming will limit future publisher gains, but the sector will reach new revenue milestones over the next few years and the prospects for longer-term growth have never been so good,” Dyson added.
