Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% year-over-year (YoY) from the previous 4.2% YoY, in light of the renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.
However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report.
Apple and Samsung’s growth projections have been revised down as cost increases are expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand — this despite some easing of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case scenarios, notes the research group.
“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market,” says Counterpoint Associate Direct Liz Lee. “Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia. We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series’ strong performance in Q1 2025. Moreover, premiumization trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and GCC – these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones.”
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