Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending. ID says growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones.
Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year, according to IDC. China is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android.
In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline.
“The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” says Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Further negative impact was prevented by the unique structure of the US smartphone market, where majority of devices are bought through carriers which help fuel demand by offering robust trade in deals and interest free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.”
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