On April 2, the Trump administration announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, followed by a provision allowing exemption for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value.”
TrendForce’s latest observations reveal that the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs, has prompted a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook for several end-device markets—including AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks.
The research group says that stronger-than-expected shipments of servers, smartphones, and notebooks in the first quarter of 2025 were largely driven by brands advancing shipments to the U.S. ahead of the new tariff implementation. TrendForce notes that supply chain players are still evaluating how to absorb increased production costs. Whether U.S. value will be assessed based on brand nationality or manufacturing origin remains a key point of concern for the industry.
TrendForce presents two revised forecast scenarios: In the base case, the 20% U.S. value is interpreted as brand-based—meaning American brands are more likely to secure exemptions for complete systems or finished products. In the worst case, retaliatory tariffs from other countries escalate the trade war, and the U.S. value is defined strictly based on the manufacturing location, which significantly increases the risk of market contraction.
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