I’m skeptical, but in a post on Medium, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that a foldable iPhone will enter mass production this year.
He says that the “iPhone Fold” is currently in the planning stage. Kuo says it will be eSIM-only, just like the rumored “iPhone Air” (or perhaps it will be dubbed the “iPhone Slim”).
“ Given that Chinese market currently does not promote phones that only support eSIM, these two models could face shipping momentum challenges unless their design is modified,” he writes. Other notes from Kuo’s report:
° Even with the new iPhone SE 4 (expected to launch around mid-2025), Apple smartphone shipments in the first half of the year are projected to decline by about 6% year-over-year.
° In December 2024, overall smartphone shipments in China were about flat vs. those in December 2023; however, iPhone shipments dropped by about 10–12% YoY, reflecting a continued slide in Apple’s Chinese market share.
° The ultra-thin iPhone Air (with the thinnest part around 5.5mm) and the foldable iPhone, are due in the second half of 2025.
° Although the ultra-thin iPhone 17 may ship in higher volumes than the iPhone Plus, it likely won’t significantly boost iPhone sales overall, partly due to downgraded components paired with a high price and a user experience similar to current models.
° iPhone shipments are estimated at around 220 million units in 2024 and roughly 220–225 million in 2025, below the market consensus of 240 million or more.
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