iPhone 16 orders were cut by around 10 million units for the fourth quarter of 2024 through the first half of 2025, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models, Ming-Chi Kuo says in a Medium post.
As a result, iPhone 16 production for the second half of 2024 is now estimated at 84 million units, the analyst says. That’s down from around 88 million previously expected.
“Following these cuts, total iPhone production for 4Q24, 1Q25, and 2Q25 is now forecast at around 80 million, 45 million, and 39 million units, respectively, all down year-over-year (vs. around 84 million, 48 million, and 41 million in 4Q23, 1Q24 and 2Q24, respectively),” Chi says.
He adds that mass production of the next generation iPhone SE4 will start in December, with projected production of around 8.6 million units from December 2024 through then first quarter of next year.
Chi says Apple’s iPhone revenue in quarter four of 2024 may not fully reflect the impact of production cuts, as the gap between production and sell-through in the third quarter of 2023 was larger than in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the product mix in quarter four of 2024 is more favorable (with increased production of the Pro Max model for September-October). However, he adds that iPhone revenues are expected to come under pressure in the first half of 2025 due to a year-over-year shipment decline and a less favorable product mix due to the launch of SE4.
“Some market participants are optimistic that Apple Intelligence could dramatically boost iPhone shipments soon. However, Apple’s recent order cuts suggest this optimistic expectation may not materialize in the short term,” Kuo says. “I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service. However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”
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