The UK firm Digital TV Research sees Disney+ getting a big lift from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has kept millions of people indoors across the world, with the platform reaching 202 million global subscribers by 2025. The news is less promising (though not bad) for Apple TV+.
If correct, Disney+’s bump will be a sharp increase from the company’s previous outlook for 126 million, and well ahead of Disney’s own predicted range of 60 million to 90 million by 2024.
Netflix, in Digital TV Research’s view, will remain the global leader five years from now with 258 million subscribers. HBO Max and Apple TV+ are forecast to have 25 million and 14 million subscribers, respectively, in 2025.
The catch is that Apple hasn’t released subscriber numbers for its streaming service. Also muddying the waters is that Apple TV+ has racked up more subscribers than both Disney+ and Hulu since its November 2019 launch, according to another report. Apple TV+ has 33.6 million U.S. subscribers, compared to Disney+’s 23.2 million and Hulu’s 31.8 million subscribers, according to Ampere Analysis.
Further complicating things is that Apple’s service, which costs $4.99/month, is offered free for one year to buyers of Apple devices. How many will pay for the service after that year is anyone’s guess.
Of course, Apple TV+ is only a small functional piece of a broader success story for Apple, which saw its services revenue increase to a record $13.3 billion for January through March.
