If Apple Vision Pro sales are slowing, that’s no surprise

In his latest “Power On” newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman says after an exciting launch period with a sales surge and users flocking to stores for demos, interest in the Apple Vision Pro has died down. The Sellers Research Group (that’s me) thinks that’s no surprise — and, in fact, something Apple expected.

From Mark’s newsletter: Here’s what I’m hearing from Apple retail stores: Demand for demos is way down. People who do book appointments often don’t show up, and sales — at least at some locations — have gone from a couple of units a day to just a handful in a whole week. Apple also has had to step up the marketing on its online homepage. There’s a huge promo for the Vision Pro at the top of the website — the most aggressive pitch since the device went on sale in early February.

The big question is whether current Vision Pro owners have stopped using the headset regularly — a problem that plagued previous virtual reality systems. Let me speak about my own experience. During the first couple of months that I owned my Vision Pro, I used it every day (sometimes several times a day). Now I’m down to maybe once or twice a week.

I was one of the earlier purchasers of the Vision Pro and still use it on a daily basis. The folks I’ve demoed it to have been very impressed — but none of them have been impressed enough to spend $3,499 and up to buy one.

I suspect that Apple always knew the first version of the Vision Pro would be a niche product that wouldn’t have blockbuster (think iPhone) sales numbers. The device is a preview of the future of spatial computing — and follow-up devices that will have lower price tags and, therefore, more mass appeal.

Last October, Mark said Apple was discussing downgrading some of the Vision Pro’s tech and functionality to cut costs as well in a future version. He said that these options include fewer cameras, lower resolution screens and an iPhone-grade chip — as opposed to the M-series you’d find in a MacBook. He said the final device will likely be named something like Apple Vision or Apple Vision One to indicate it’s related to the Apple Vision Pro, just not quite as fully featured.

And I’m certain that Apple’s long-term goal is “Apple Glasses” (my moniker, not Apple’s), a follow-up to the Vision Pro that will more akin, design-wise, to regular eyeglasses rather than current VR/AR headsets.

That said, the first generation of the Vision Pro may be selling better than Apple expected. In a February 14 note to clients, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple stocked around 80,000 units for launch day and the numbers aren’t slowing down. Some online reports say that Apple has sold almost 200,000 spatial computers so far.

And in January, Webush analyst predicted that Apple will sell roughly 600,000 Vision Pro headsets for 2024 and more than one million in 2025.

Mark’s thoughts are from the free edition of “Power On”. If you like it, consider subscribing to Bloomberg.com—you’ll receive the newsletter earlier and get exclusive access to a Q&A section.