Analyst: iPhone X sales weaker than expected, but 2018 iPhones will pick up the slack

In a note to clients — as noted by MacRumors — KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says demand for the iPhone X has been weaker than expected (mainly in China), but that larger-sized iPhone models in the pipeline should see Apple grow its overall worldwide shipments year-on-year.

He’s revised the first and second quarters 2018 shipments of iPhone X to 18 million units and 13 million units, respectively. That’s lower than market consensus of 20-30 million and 15-20 million units. 

What’s more, Kuo feels that the iPhone X design may be a one-up with production ceasing in the summer when replacements for the fall are being produced. Overall shipments of the high-end smartphone will be around 62 million units, lower than his previous forecast of 80 million units, he says.

Kuo is forecasting three iPhone models in 2018: an OLED model that measures in at 5.8 inches like the current iPhone X; an OLED model that measures in at 6.5 inches that will serve as a sort of “iPhone X Plus”;  and a 6.1-inch model that features an LCD display. Kuo believes all three models will be equipped with a full-screen notched design and TrueDepth camera system like the iPhone X. 

With these models, the analyst anticipates that iPhone shipments will grow 5-10% year-on-year over 2018. As a result, KGI retains a positive outlook for the iPhone supply chain in the second half of the year.