Analyst: Apple drops 2024 estimates of Vision Pro 2024 shipments from 700,000-800,000 to 400,000-450,00

In a Medium post, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple has dropped the number of Vision Pro units that it plans to ship in 2024 from 700,000-800,000 to 400,000-450,00 units.

He says Apple cut orders before launching the spatial computer in non-US markets, which means that demand in the US market has fallen sharply beyond expectations, making the tech giant take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets.

Kuo adds that Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, so there may be no new Vision Pro model in 2025. The previous expectation was that there would be a new model. What’s more, Apple now expects Vision Pro shipments to decline year-over-year in 2025.

“The challenge for Vision Pro is to address the lack of key applications, price, and headset comfort without sacrificing the see-through user experience,” Kuo says. “In contrast, VR [virtual reality] is also a niche market, but at least there are proven successful applications (games), and trend visibility is better than MR [mixed reality].”

Also, see my April 22 editorial: “If Apple Vision Sales Are Slowing, That’s No Surprise.”