2024 could see things improve for the Mac as overall PC sales are expected to rebound

2024 could see sales improve for the Mac. With shipments totaling 68.5 million units in the third quarter of 2023, the global personal computer [PC] market managed to outperform expectations and next year should be even better, according to IDC. But third quarter volume was still down 7.2% compared to the same quarter in 2022, notes the research group.

What’s more, given current conditions and a tenuous macroeconomic environment, IDC has lowered its forecast for the worldwide PC market. 2023 shipment volume is now expected to decline 13.8% compared to 2022, which itself declined 16.6% over the previous year. Two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year drops is an unprecedented trend in the PC market but will likely contribute to a recovery thereafter. 

Despite the short-term challenges, IDC continues to expect a market rebound in 2024 and beyond with many factors converging within the next two years. A few of the main drivers include:

° PC Refresh Cycle: The vast and aging installed base of commercial PCs surpassing the four-year mark by 2024 is expected to necessitate a refresh. The total PC market of 2024 should see growth of 3.4% compared to 2023. 

° AI Integration: The integration of AI capabilities into PCs is expected to serve as a catalyst for upgrades, hitting shelves in 2024 and at first aimed toward certain segments of the enterprise PC market. Over time, further advancement in use cases and cost reductions could spread to the broader market. 

° Continued evolution and recovery of the consumer installed base. 

The collective influence of these factors positions 2024 as a pivotal year for the PC market, offering a respite from recent challenges, according to IDC. Beyond 2024, growth is expected to surpass pre-pandemic shipment levels and culminate in 285 million units by 2027. (Note that IDC doesn’t count tablets such as the iPad as a PC.)

Apple needs 2024 to be a good year for the Mac. Mac sales dropped 29.1% year-over-year from the third quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023.

When Apple announced the financial results for its fiscal 2023 fourth quarter that ended September 30 the bad news was that Mac revenue was US$7.61 billion, year-on-year from $11.5 billion.

However, in a conference all with analysts and investors CEO Tim Cook thinks that’s about to change.

“I think the Mac is going to have a significantly better quarter in the December quarter,” said Cook. “We’ve got the M3, we’ve got the new products, and we don’t have the compare phenomenon on a year-over-year basis.”